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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."